What is the impact of climate change on India?
In India, average temperatures have increased by 0.6 degrees Celsius (° C) between 1901-10 and 2009-18. At an annual level, this may seem trivial. But projections deeper into the future paint a more alarming picture. For instance, the World Bank estimates that, if climate change continues unhindered, then average temperatures in India could reach as high as 29.1° C by the end of the century (up from 25.1° C currently). Thus there can be a severe impact of climate change on India.
As climate change becomes more palpable, some parts of India will be more affected. Comparing the average temperature in 2009-18 to that in 1950-80 reveals that some pockets have already become much hotter. In parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and the North-East, the average temperature over the last decade has risen by nearly 1° C compared to the historical average in the 1950-80 period.
According to the World Bank, central districts in India are the most vulnerable to climate change because they lack the infrastructure and are largely agrarian. Within this region, the districts in Maharashtra’s Vidarbha region are particularly susceptible to climate change damage. A primary channel for the fall in incomes comes from climate change’s effects on farmers. The monsoon and suitable temperatures are critical inputs for farmers. Hotter weather and disrupted rainfall hurt crop yields and, consequently, their incomes.
Farmers may be the most hurt by climate change, but other workers can be affected, too. In industries such as construction, high temperatures can make life miserable for workers and decrease their productivity. According to the International Labour Organization, the loss in productivity by 2030 because of heat stress could be the equivalent of India losing 34 million full-time jobs (up from 15 million in 1995)—the highest among the world’s most populous nations.
